Parameter Evaluation in Motion Estimation for Forecasting Multiple Photovoltaic Power Generation

The power-generation capacity of grid-connected photovoltaic (PV) power systems is increasing. As output forecasting required by electricity market participants and utility operators for the stable operation systems, several methods have been proposed using physical statistical approaches various time ranges. A short-term (30 min ahead) method had previously multiple PV motion estimation. This forecasts short ahead generation estimating between two geographical images distributed systems. In this method, parameter , which relates smoothness resulting vector field affects accuracy forecasting, important. study focuses on evaluates effect changing accuracy. periods with drastic changes, was conducted 101 results indicate that absolute mean error best 10.3%, whereas persistence 23.7%. Therefore, effective in when changes drastically within a interval.